Online travel agencies may be better positioned to benefit from artificial intelligence than widely feared, according to a Morgan Stanley research note that challenges the consensus view that AI agents will cut traditional booking platforms out of the transaction chain.
The bank said early agentic AI travel tools are not bypassing online travel agencies but instead redirecting users to their apps and websites to complete bookings. Rather than acting as merchants of record themselves, major AI platforms appear reluctant to take on payment risk, customer service obligations, refunds and regulatory responsibilities — leaving online travel agencies at the center of the transaction flow.
That dynamic preserves what Morgan Stanley identifies as a critical advantage: online travel agencies’ ability to remain the merchant of record while continuing to capture valuable consumer browsing and purchase data. That data, combined with access to vast accommodation inventory, could make the platforms indispensable partners rather than casualties of AI disruption.
The note highlights Booking.com’s accelerating direct app traffic as evidence of continued consumer engagement. Monthly active users on the app have grown at an increasing pace in recent quarters, rising 8%, 9%, 11% and 12% year-over-year over the last four quarters. Morgan Stanley views that direct channel growth as particularly attractive given its higher-margin profile.
Scale also remains a structural advantage. Booking Holdings lists more than 4 million properties globally — roughly 40 times the inventory of major hotel groups — with around 90% of revenues tied to independent hotels, small chains and alternative accommodations. That long-tail supply, the bank argues, is difficult for AI platforms to replicate or circumvent.
While some investors have speculated that AI could benefit hotel brands by weakening online travel agencies, Morgan Stanley suggests that view may be misplaced. The firm sees the current industry structure — which it likens to paid search — as more resilient than expected, with critical data flows and purchase paths largely intact for now.
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