The Mastercard Economics Institute has released its Economic Outlook 2026, forecasting resilient growth across the Middle East and Africa despite a moderating global economy.
The report projects global real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, while the Middle East and North Africa region is expected to expand at a faster pace of 3.6% year on year. According to the institute, the region’s performance is being driven by structural reforms, targeted fiscal spending and an accelerating push toward digital transformation, helping economies adapt to rising global fragmentation.
A key theme in the outlook is the region’s growing investment in advanced technology and artificial intelligence. The institute’s newly introduced AI Enthusiasm Index shows that the Middle East is moving beyond pilot projects toward operational adoption of AI. This shift is particularly evident in the construction sector, where technology-related developments such as data centers and electronics manufacturing now account for more than 20% of non-residential construction, compared with 2.3% a decade ago.
Long-term national strategies, including Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the United Arab Emirates’ National Strategy for AI, are identified as major drivers supporting non-oil growth and economic diversification.
In Africa, the outlook highlights rapid progress in digital inclusion and consumer resilience. Mastercard said it expanded its acceptance network on the continent by 45% in 2025, helping to underpin a digital payments market expected to reach $1.5 trillion by 2030.
Consumer spending is forecast to remain strong in several major African economies, with growth of 6% in Nigeria, 4% in Kenya and 3.4% in Morocco. The report said this trend is creating new opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises, which are increasingly using digital tools to improve efficiency and compete in higher-value services traditionally dominated by larger companies.
Despite the positive outlook, the institute cautioned that risks remain. Khatija Haque, chief economist for Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa at the institute, said easing financial conditions and expected U.S. interest rate cuts could support oil exporters and boost demand in sectors such as real estate and tourism.
However, she warned that geopolitical tensions and climate-related risks continue to pose challenges. Inflation trends are also expected to diverge across the region. While inflation in Gulf Cooperation Council countries is projected to remain stable at about 2%, oil-importing economies may see a slower decline, averaging around 6.7%, which could continue to weigh on household purchasing power.
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