Zimbabwe’s hopes of reaching the Round of 16 at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations hinge on Monday’s decisive Group B game against neighbours South Africa.
Egypt have already sealed their qualification in the group with 6 points after beating both Zimbabwe and South Africa.
South Africa sit second with 3 points, while Angola and Zimbabwe take third and fourth place, respectively, with 1 point apiece.
CAF AFCON qualification rules
From the group stage, the top two teams in each group automatically qualify for the Round of 16. In addition, the four best third-placed teams across all six groups also progress.
Tiebreakers in AFCON group standings are applied in this order:
1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams.
2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches.
3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches.
4. Goal difference in all group matches.
5. Goals scored in all group matches.
6. If still tied, disciplinary points will apply.
Zimbabwe’s path to the Round of 16
A win against Bafana Bafana, coupled with either a draw or defeat for Angola against Egypt, would guarantee the Warriors a place in the Round of 16. That outcome would see Zimbabwe leapfrog into second place.
Even if Zimbabwe finish third, 4 points is a strong total that should be enough to be one of the four best third-placed teams across all groups.
A draw would see the Warriors end on 2 points but to finish third, Angola should loose and remain at 1 point, while South Africa would go to 4 points and finish second behind Egypt.
Zimbabwe on 2 points could still qualify as a third-placed team, but it would heavily depend on overall comparison with other third-placed teams across other groups. This is a very unlikely path to Round of 16.
Third-place qualifiers are ranked by:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
A loss will get the Warriors eliminated as they will finish bottom or third depending on Angola’s result. One point is almost certainly too few to qualify either as a second-placed or best third-placed team across the tournament.
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